Makro, inflace a sazby
GDP, Unemployment, and Other Macro Data That Move Markets
Key takeaways
- GDP measures total economic output and its trend determines whether the economy is expanding or contracting.
- Unemployment data is lagging — markets focus more on new jobless claims, which arrive weekly.
- Inflation indicators (CPI, PPI) are critical to central bank expectations.
- PMIs are leading survey-based indicators — a reading above 50 signals expansion, below 50 contraction.
- Macro data provides context for understanding the environment, not a signal to rebuild the portfolio.
Economic data is released every month on a regular schedule and moves markets because it shifts investors' expectations about future corporate earnings and central bank decisions. Understanding these indicators helps you follow events without having to trade on them.
GDP — The Fundamental Measure
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures total economic output for a quarter. When GDP grows, the economy is expanding. When it falls for two consecutive quarters, we speak of a recession. GDP is, however, a lagging indicator — the numbers arrive with a delay and are revised. That is why markets react more strongly to leading indicators.
Unemployment and the Labor Market
The monthly jobs report (in the US, Non-Farm Payrolls) is among the most closely watched data releases. A strong labor market signals a healthy economy, but complicates the central banks' inflation-fighting task — consumers with income spend. That is why, paradoxically, data that is too strong can sometimes disappoint markets, as it pushes back the timing of rate cuts.
Inflation Data: CPI and PPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation from the household perspective. The Producer Price Index (PPI) captures inflation earlier in the supply chain — it is a leading indicator of future CPI. Both numbers significantly influence expectations about central bank rate moves. We write about the relationship between inflation and equities in a dedicated article.
PMI — A Leading Survey Indicator
- PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) are monthly surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services.
- A reading above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction.
- They arrive before GDP and are therefore watched as early signs of economic direction.
As an investor you don't need to track this data daily — reading a macroeconomist's commentary once a month is enough. Manage the portfolio according to your long-term plan, not according to every data point.
FAQ
What is PMI and why do markets watch it?
PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers measuring sentiment in manufacturing and services. It arrives faster than GDP and acts as a leading indicator — a reading above 50 signals expansion, below 50 contraction.
Why can strong employment data disappoint markets?
A strong labor market signals the economy doesn't need stimulation, so the central bank hesitates to cut rates. Delayed rate cuts can be disappointing for markets even when employment is high.
Do I need to track all macro data as an investor?
No. Basic orientation is enough — knowing which phase of the cycle the economy is in. Manage the portfolio according to a long-term plan, not according to every monthly data point. Macro data is context, not a trading signal.