Přehled trhů
How not to fall for ads on "hot" investments and guaranteed tips
Key takeaways
- Hot investment tips have four typical hallmarks: urgency, a promise of above-average returns, a story instead of data, and social proof.
- FOMO (fear of missing out) is a psychological mechanism that leads us to impulsive investment decisions.
- A guaranteed return without discussion of risk is either fraud or poor-quality communication — both are a reason to say no.
- A pre-defined investment plan is the best defence against tempting tips outside your strategy.
- Three control questions: who stands behind it, where is the risk, and what does the pessimistic scenario look like.
February is the season of investment promises
After January's new-year resolve, February brings the first wave of investment opportunities. Social media fills up with posts about cryptocurrencies that "must rise this year", about tech startup shares with a "revolutionary product" and about funds with returns above 30% per year. Influencers share portfolio screenshots. Ads promise guaranteed returns. And the financially literate investor asks: how do I navigate this?
The anatomy of a hot tip
A hot investment tip typically has these hallmarks: urgency (you must act now or the opportunity disappears), a promise of above-average returns without discussing risk, a story instead of data (the product will change the world) and social proof (thousands of people are already making money). None of these elements alone is a sufficient reason to invest — on the contrary, a combination of all four is the classic pattern of manipulative communication.
- "Guaranteed return" does not exist — every investment carries risk, the law requires this to be disclosed, and if someone does not disclose it, that is a warning sign.
- Urgency is a marketing tool — real investment opportunities do not disappear in 24 hours.
- Returns without a risk context are half the story — a fund with 40% annual returns may have had 60% volatility.
Why we react to tips
Psychologists call it FOMO (fear of missing out) — the fear of missing an opportunity. An evolutionary mechanism that drove us to gather food during times of plenty turns against us in the investment world. We see others making money and our brain interprets the absence of action as a loss. The result is an impulsive decision without analysis.
The best defence: define your investment plan in advance, outside a moment of emotion. If you have written down what you invest in and why, it is easier to reject anything that does not fit the plan — regardless of how tempting it sounds.
How to verify an investment before making it
Three quick questions you should ask yourself before every "opportunity of the year": Who stands behind this and what is their interest? Where is the risk described? What would the outcome look like in a pessimistic scenario? If you do not have answers to these three questions, do not invest.
If you are looking for a framework for a rational approach to investing, I recommend reading why an active approach loses in the long run or looking at how to build a first portfolio with a clear strategy.
FAQ
How do I tell whether it is an investment fraud and not just bad advice?
Frauds typically promise guaranteed returns, push for a quick decision, have no regulatory registration and refuse transparent documentation. Always check registration with the relevant regulator (e.g. ČNB or ESMA).
Is investing based on a friend's or influencer's recommendation always a bad idea?
Not automatically — but always do your own analysis. A tip from a friend can be a good starting point for research, not a command to act. Influencers may have a financial interest in promoting a product.
What should I do if I have already reacted to such a tip and invested?
Evaluate calmly: do you understand the investment? Does it have a clear risk profile? Does it fit your plan? If not, there is no shame in closing the position and learning the lesson. Holding onto a bad investment out of fear of admitting a mistake is typically more costly than the loss itself.