Sektory a témata
Picks and shovels of AI: how to invest in suppliers instead of stars
Key takeaways
- "Picks and shovels" means investing in suppliers and enablers of a trend, not just its stars.
- Real suppliers can be identified from annual reports (10-K), customer concentration data and specialist sources — not internet tips.
- In AI, verifiable "suppliers" are mainly large, liquid companies (chip manufacturing, memory, lithography, networking, data-centre cooling).
- Looking for a "hidden small supplier of OpenAI" is a trap: private companies do not disclose their supply chains and micro-caps tend to be illiquid and risky.
- The most sensible exposure to the whole chain is a broad semiconductor or AI ETF, not a bet on one obscure stock.
"Picks and shovels" is an investment principle: instead of betting on the gold-seekers, you bet on the people who sell them their pickaxes. In the Gold Rush it was mostly the tool merchants who got rich, not the majority of diggers. The logic in AI is the same — alongside the most famous names stand the companies supplying what those names cannot do without.
Why suppliers instead of stars
The most famous companies tend to be the most expensive too — you pay a premium and high expectations. Behind-the-scenes suppliers can benefit from the same trend, sometimes at more reasonable valuations. But beware: a lower valuation is not the same as a cheap stock, and "unknown" does not automatically mean "undervalued".
How to find genuine suppliers
This is the key part — and it is not done from internet tips, but from data:
- Annual report (10-K) and company presentations — large buyers often describe their suppliers and supply-chain risks there.
- Customer concentration — suppliers must disclose in filings when one customer makes up a large share of revenue (this reveals "who depends on whom").
- Specialist and industry sources — supply-chain analyses, not forum "rocket tips".
- Your own company analysis — even for a supplier the same rules apply: business, moat, numbers, risks.
Who the real "AI suppliers" are
When you look at the chain objectively, most of the indispensable links are large, liquid and verifiable companies, not obscure micro-caps: contract chip manufacturers, memory makers (HBM for AI accelerators), lithography-equipment manufacturers, network and data-centre cooling suppliers, chip makers for cars and sensors (onsemi-type buyers belong here too). These are the ones "selling the shovels" — and they can be bought through any standard broker.
The most sensible route onto the chain
The picks-and-shovels paradox: you do not have to pick a single supplier. A semiconductor or AI ETF holds the whole chain at once — chip manufacturing, memory, equipment and designers — and spreads the single-company risk. For most people that is more sensible than hunting one obscure stock. You will find specific funds in the ETF overview; analyses of the major chain links (NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, Broadcom) are in the Company Analyses section.
This is educational content, not investment advice. Individual stocks carry higher risk than a broad index.
FAQ
What does "picks and shovels" mean in investing?
A principle of investing in the companies supplying the essential inputs to a trend's stars rather than in the stars themselves. Like in the Gold Rush, where the tool merchants reliably made money while most diggers did not. In AI, that means chip manufacturers, memory makers, equipment suppliers and infrastructure companies.
How do I find out who really supplies a major AI company?
From official documents: annual reports (10-K), presentations and customer-concentration disclosures, or from specialist supply-chain analyses. Not from internet tips. Anything you cannot verify in official sources should be treated as unconfirmed.
Is it worth hunting for small "hidden suppliers" of OpenAI?
Probably not. OpenAI and many AI companies are private and do not publish their supply chains, so such claims cannot be verified and often serve to pump prices. Small stocks tend to be illiquid and risky as well.
How do I get exposure to the AI supply chain without taking large risks?
Most simply through a broad semiconductor or AI ETF, which holds the whole chain at once and spreads single-company risk. That is usually more sensible than betting on one obscure stock.